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In support of returning CPI inflation sustainably to the 2% target, the Committee is maintaining its focus on the persistence of inflationary pressures in the medium term. Progress on disinflation in domestic price and wage pressures has generally continued. Monetary policy will need to continue to remain restrictive for sufficiently long until the risks to inflation returning sustainably to the 2% target in the medium term have dissipated further. The Committee will continue to monitor closely the risks of inflation persistence and what the evolving evidence may reveal about the balance between aggregate supply and demand in the economy. Should there be greater or longer-lasting weakness in demand relative to supply, this could push down on inflationary pressures, warranting a less restrictive path of Bank Rate.

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The direct energy price contribution to 12-month CPI inflation is expected to increase from ‑0.6 to a positive contribution of 0.4 percentage points in 2025 Q3 (Chart 1.1). Headline inflation is now expected to rise more sharply, to 3.7% in 2025 Q3, in large part reflecting recent developments in global energy costs and regulated prices. Pay growth is expected to slow significantly by the end of 2025, to around 3¾%. Services consumer price inflation fell by more than expected in December, to 4.4%, but that in large part reflected volatility in airfares that may unwind in the new year. CPI inflation was 2.5% in December and also in 2024 Q4, close to expectations at the time of the November Report (Section 2.5). In large part reflecting recent developments in global energy costs and regulated prices, headline CPI inflation is expected to rise quite sharply in the near term, to 3.7% in 2025 Q3.

According to the preliminary flash release, annual HICP inflation in the euro area rose to 2.5% in January, while core inflation remained at 2.7%. Services inflation excluding energy and housing, which was 3.5% in December, continues to be the major component of headline PCE inflation. US PCE inflation, the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure, edged up to 2.6% in December, the highest rate in several months (Chart 2.5). Headline consumer price inflation is projected to remain slightly above target in the US and euro area over 2025.

The response of the sterling exchange rate is likely to be a key determinant of the overall impact of changes in global trade policies on UK inflation, particularly in the near term. That said, in the event of a global escalation of trade tariffs, exchange rates may also respond to changes in risk perceptions and risk aversion in global markets. A higher sterling exchange rate could add to the fall in US demand for UK exports to some extent, while also reducing the cost of UK imports, pushing down on UK inflation. Sterling might appreciate or depreciate depending on other countries’ trade policies and the evolution of global risk sentiment. At the same time, it might lead to more intense competition for UK producers of tradable goods. Assuming no change in UK trade policy, falls in UK import costs due to such trade diversion effects would increase real incomes and consumption of UK households.

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This is likely to require them to lower their export prices, reducing UK inflation. With access to the US market more expensive, exporters in other countries might seek alternative consumers for goods they can no longer sell as profitably in the US. At the same time, supply chain disruptions due to rising global trade barriers could lead to price spikes that cascade through production networks, which might push up on global and UK prices. Such additional trade barriers would lead to further distortions in trade flows and prices, which could result in a reduction in global aggregate demand, weighing further on demand for UK exports and hence on UK activity and inflation. All else equal, lower global demand for UK exports would reduce UK activity and inflationary pressures.

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In September 2021, the Australian government announced plans to curb Google’s capability to sell targeted ads, claiming that the company has a monopoly on the market harming publishers, advertisers, and consumers. In response, Google threatened to close off access to its search engine in Australia. Such measures included slowing down hiring for the remainder of 2020, except for a small number of strategic areas, recalibrating the focus and pace of investments in areas like data centers and machines, and non-business essential marketing and travel. In 2015, DeepMind’s AlphaGo became the first computer program to defeat a top human pro at the game of Go.

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